Agenda and
Presentations for
The Defense Threat
Reduction
Agency Sponsored
Seventh Annual George Mason University
Conference on Transport and Dispersion Modeling
June 17-19, 2003
Fairfax, Virginia, U.S.A.
Focus Theme: Boundary Layer
Processes Important to Transport and Dispersion
All Sessions
will be held at Room 80,
Enterprise Hall, the Fairfax campus of George Mason University
7:00 All Day Three Days
Registration
7:00
9:00 Continental Breakfast
7:45
8:00 Introductions
Session 1 General
Meteorology and Dispersion
Session
Chair for Tuesday Morning 1 - Zafer Boybeyi
(GMU)
8:00 8:15 Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: A
Transport
and Dispersion Perspective
B. Beitler
Advanced Weather
Officer
Consequence
Assessment Branch
Defense Threat
Reduction Agency
8:15
8:30 Consequences of
Iraqi Use
of Oil as a Defensive Weapon: Methodology and Results
R. Babarsky*, H. T. Smith, W.
Higgins , R. Newell, J. Herbelin, S. Bradley, R. Meris, R. Fry, &
R. I.
Sykes
*NGIC
8:30
8:45 Operational
Dispersion Models -- the Activities of
the OFCM Joint Action Group and Prospects for the Future
B. B.
Hicks
Air Resources Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1315 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Session 2 CFD
Modeling and Dispersion
8:45
9:00 VLES Study
of
Temperature and Concentration for a Ship
F. E.
Camelli*, R. Lohner, W. C. Sandberg & R. Ramamurti
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
9:00 9:15 CFD Simulation of
a Prairie Grass Field Dispersion Experiment
S. T. Chan*, M. J. Leach & W. P. Dannevik
*Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore,
CA 94551
9:15
9:30 A
Higher-order Upwind Scheme for the Advection-Diffusion Equation on
Unstructured
Meshes
N. Ahmad*
& R. A. Sarma
Center for Atmospheric Physics
Science Applications International Corporation
1710 Goodridge Drive, McLean, VA 22102
9:30 9:45 Large Scale Simulations of Contaminant Dispersions in Urban Area
09:45
10:15 Coffee Break
Session 2 CFD
Modeling and
Dispersion (Cont)
Session Chair for
Tuesday Morning 2 - Ted Yamada (YSA)
10:15 10:30 Assessing
Maximum
Possible Damage for Release Events
F. E.
Camelli* & R.
Lohner
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
10:30 10:45 Comparison Studies of Plume
Morphology
using a Puff Model and an Urban High-Resolution Model
*Center for International Security and Cooperation
Encina Hall, E214
Stanford University, Stanford, CA
10:45 11:00 Validation of
CFD
Near-Building Dispersion with Urban 2000 Data
For
Steady and Time-Dependent Boundary
Conditions
T.
Humphreys*, S. Chan &
R. Lee
*Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551
11:00 11:15 Modeling and Measurements of
Flow and Dispersion
in Subway Systems
D. Brown* & A. Policastro
11:15 11:30 Application
of CFD-Urban for Support of the Joint Urban 2003 Field Test
W. J.
Coirier*, A. J. Reich,
D. M. Fricker, M. Furmanczyk & A. J. Przekwas
CFD Research Corporation
11:30 11:45 Numerical Simulation
of
Atmospheric Flow within Urban Morphology
S.-M. Lee*,
D. Zajic, W.
Giori, & H. J. S. Fernando
*Environmental Fluid Dynamics Program
Arizona State University
P.O. Box 879809, Tempe, AZ
Yamada Science & Art Corporation (YSA)
13 Heiwa
Santa Fe, NM 87506
12:00
1:30 Lunch Break (on Your Own)
Session 3 Urban
Scale Modeling and
Dispersion
Session Chair for
Tuesday Afternoon 1 - John Pace (DTRA)
1:30 1:45 DTRA Urban Dispersion Modeling
Program
Update
J. Pace
Defense Threat
Reduction Agency
Urban Dispersion
Modeling Program
DTRA/TDOC
J.
Sontowski*, J. Moussafir,
G. Tinarelli, O. Oldrini & C. Dougherty
* SAIC/Valley Forge
1100 First Avenue, Suite 300
King of Prussia, PA 19406
2:00 2:15 A Baseline Urban
Dispersion Model Applied to the Los Angeles SF6 Tracer Data
S.
Hanna
School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA, 22030-4444
F. S. Lien*
& E. Yee
* Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1
2:30
2:45 Development
of the
Quic Modeling System for Urban Dispersion
M. D. Williams*, M. J.
Brown & E. R. Pardyjak
*Los Alamos National Laboratory
2:45
3:00 Predicting
indoor exposures from outdoor concentrations
P. N.
Price*, R. W. Chan & A. J. Gadgil
*Indoor
Environment Department, MS 90-3058
Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley
CA 94720
A. Pflitsch*
&
H. Kόsel
*Ruhr-University of Bochum
Germany
Session 4 Urban
Scale Experiments
and Data Analysis
Session Chair for
Tuesday Afternoon 2 - Jim Bowers (DPG)
3:45 4:00 Effects
of micro-scale
atmospheric pressure changes on subway system background current
H. Kόsel* & A.
Pflitsch
*University of Ruhr,
Bochum
Germany
4:00
4:15
Solar-induced
thermal effects on the flow in a street canyon
E. Savory*
& J.-F. Sini
*Advanced Fluid Mechanics Research Group
Dept of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario,
Canada N6A 5B9
4:15 4:30 Airflow Measurements About a
Building
R. M.
Cionco*, G. T. Vaucher
& Y. P. Yee
*US Army Research Laboratory,
White Sands Missile Range, NM 88002
4:30 4:45 New York City Urban
Atmospheric Observatory (UAO)
H.-N. (Sam) Lee*, R. M. Reynolds, & Bruce B. Hicks
*U. S. Department of Homeland Security
Environmental Measurements Laboratory
201 Varick St., 5th Floor
New York, NY 10014-7447
4:45 5:00 Analysis of Concentration Fluctuations in Obstacle Array Dispersion
R. Macdonald* & B. Kim
*Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
5:00 5:15 Urban Release Detection and
Reconstruction by a Mobile Sensor Network
S.
A. Stage*, M.
Boechler & H. Sofranko
*Innovative Emergency Management
8555 United
Plaza Blvd, Suite 100
Baton Rouge, LA 70809
5:15 5:30 Evaluating Optimal Sensor
Deployments for Particular Threat Scenarios: ASSESS
J. F.
Garten*, P. G.
Fuechsel, R. C. Blackett, J. Giles & C. E. Schemm
*Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
11100 Johns Hopkins Rd
Laurel, MD 20723
5:30 5:45 Dispersion of Puff Releases in Obstacle Arrays
J. Innes*
& R. Macdonald
*Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
5:45
Ice Breaker
7:00 All Day Registration (Cont)
7:00 9:00 Continental Breakfast
Session 5
Boundary Layer Modeling
and Dispersion
Session Chair for
Wednesday Morning 1- R. A. Sarma (SAIC)
8:00 8:15 Quantifying Penetration and
Deposition of
Aerosol Species Within Vegetative Canopies
J. W.
Leggoe*, A. L. Graham
& J. R. Abbott
*Center For Dispersive Processes
Chemical Engineering Department, Texas Tech University
PO Box 43121, Lubbock, Texas, 79409-3121
8:15 8:30 Sub-Grid
Air Pollution Concentration Distributions as a Complement to Fine Scale
Air
Quality Models
J. Ching
NOAA,ARL
AMD, NERL, USEPA, RTP, NC. 27711
8:30 8:45 Scale-Dependent Turbulence Mixing
for
High-Resolution Mesoscale Models
Q. Wang*, M.
K. Whisenhant,
S. Wang & J. Doyle
*Meteorology Department
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
8:45 9:00 Sensitivities of Regional Soil
Moisture to
the Numerical Predictions of
Mesoscale Circulation and Meteorological Variables near Surface
Y. Ma*, Z. Boybeyi & D. Hou
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
9:00 9:15 Sensitivity in
Simulations of Weakly Forced Circulations to the Initial Conditions in
Soil
Variables
D. Hou* &
Z. Boybeyi
*W/NP2, NOAA, WWB #207
5200 Auth Road
CAMP Springs, MD 20746-4304
9:15 9:30 Convergence Effects on
Pollutant Concentrations
R.
Bornstein
Department of
Meteorology
One Washington
Square
San Jose State
University
San Jose, CA 95192
9:30 9:45 Coastal Circulations DTRA Chesapeake Bay Experiment
R. A. Sarma
Science Applications
International Corporation
1710 SAIC Dr.,
McLean, VA 22102
09:45
10:15 Coffee Break
Special Session 6
Model Evaluation
Special Session
Chair for Wednesday Morning 2 - Steve Hanna (GMU)
10:15 10:30 Model
Validation
Project: Overview, Data Processing, and Some Results
K.
S. Rao
Atmospheric
Turbulence and Diffusion
Division, ARL
National Oceanic
and Atmospheric
Administration
P.O. Box 2456, Oak Ridge, TN 37831
10:30 10:45 Validation of the Urban Dispersion Model (UDM) with data from Urban 2000
D. R. Brook*,
I. H. Griffiths, D.
C. Strickland & D. J. Hall
* Defence Science
& Technology Laboratory (Dstl)
Physical Sciences
Department.
10:45 11:00 Comparison of Urban HPAC Tracer Dispersion Simulations with Urban 2000 and MUST Experiments
B.
Chowdhury*, D. Lim, R. I.
Sykes & P. A. Hookham
Titan Research and Technology
50 Washington Rd.
Princeton Jct. NJ 08550
11:00
11:10 An
Overview of Coordinated Independent Evaluation of Urban HPAC
Z.
Boybeyi*, J. Chang, P. Franzese, R. Fry, S. Hanna, N. Platt, & S.
Warner
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax,
Virginia, 22030-4444
11:10 11:25 Comparisons of Urban 2000 Observations and Urban HPAC Predictions Paired in Space and Time, Part 1: Methodology and Measures
*Institute for Defense
Analyses
4850 Mark Center Drive
Alexandria, VA 22311-1882
11:25 11:40 Comparisons of Urban 2000 Observations and Urban HPAC Predictions Paired in Space and Time, Part 2: Results and Conclusions
*Institute for Defense
Analyses
4850 Mark Center Drive
Alexandria, VA 22311-1882
11:40 11:55 Statistical and Scientific
Evaluation of
Urban HPAC Using Urban 2000 Field Data
S. R. Hanna*, J. C. Chang, Z. Boybeyi & P. Franzese
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
11:55 12:10 Sensitivities of Evaluation
Results to Data
Acceptance and Pairing Criteria
J. C. Chang*, S. R. Hanna, Z. Boybeyi & P. Franzese
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
12:10
1:30 Lunch Break (on Your Own)
Session 7
Mesoscale Modeling and
Dispersion
Session Chair for
Wednesday Afternoon 1- R. Bornstein
(SJSU)
1:30
1:45
An Update on
Activities at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
M.
Clancy
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
7 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 1
Monterey, CA
93901
1:45 2:00 Stratospheric Dynamics,
Dispersion, and
Variability Modeling with Spreads Propagation of NOGAPS Data
R. Y.
Levine*, P. A.
Rochford, J. S. Grot, J. Y-K. Cho &
J. Spinelli
*Spectral Sciences, Inc.
99 South Bedford Street, Suite 7
Burlington, MA 01803
2:00 2:15 Global to Local
Numerical
Weather Prediction: The Ultimate Multiscale Problem
D. P. Bacon*, N. N. Ahmad, Z.
Boybeyi. T. J. Dunn, M. S. Hall, P. C. S. Lee, D. E. Mays, R. A. Sarma,
M. D.
Turner & T. Wait
Center for Atmospheric Physics
Science Applications International Corporation
1710 Goodridge Drive, McLean, VA 22102
2:15 2:30 Mesoscale Forecasting of Dust Storms
B. H.
Barnum*, N. S.
Winstead, P. Colarco, O. B. Toon, P.
Ginoux, J. Weseley & A. Hakola
*Johns Hopkins University
Applied Physics Laboratory
Laurel, MD 20723
M. Liu*, D.
L. Westphal, A.
L. Walker, S. D. Miller & T. R. Holt
*Naval Research Laboratory
7 Grace Hopper Ave.
Monterey, CA 93943
T. Warner*, S. Swerdlin, Y. Liu, L. Carson & J. Bowers
*National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder,
Colorado
3:00 3:15 Predictability of
Low-Level Winds by Mesoscale Meteorological Models
D. Rife*
& T. Warner
*National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder,
Colorado
3:15 3:45
Coffee Break
Session 8
Mesoscale Modeling and
Dispersion (Cont)
Session Chair for
Wednesday Afternoon 2- Julia Spinelli
(DTRA)
K.
Patton-Hall* & R. E. Marshall
*Naval
Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division
17320 Dahlgren Rd
Dahlgren, VA 22448-5100
4:00
4:15
Mesoscale Weather Model Analysis Options for an Over Water
Chemical Simulant Release
R. E.
Marshall* & K. Patton-Hall
*T44,
Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division
17320 Dahlgren Rd
Dahlgren, VA 22448-5100
4:15
4:30 Urban Canopy Parameterization
in RAMS
J. H. Copeland* &
M. J. Bell
*Mission
Research
Corporation
ASTER
Division, PO Box 466
Fort Collins, Colorado, 80522-0466
4:30 4:45 Mesoscale Modeling at the Air
Force
Weather Agency for Support to Dispersion Models
J. W. Wegiel*
& J. C.
Pace
*Headquarters, Air Force Weather Agency
106 Peacekeeper Dr., STE 2N3
Offutt A.F.B., NE 68113-4039
4:45 5:00 Comparisons of ATP-45 Templates
and HPAC
Using a Two-Dimensional Measure of Effectiveness
J. Heagy*, S. Warner & N. Platt
*Institute for Defense Analyses
4850 Mark Center Drive
Alexandria, VA 22311-1882
E. Sajo*
& H. Park
*Louisiana State University, Nuclear Science Center
Department of Physics & Astronomy
Baton Rouge, LA 70803
5:15 5:30 Ensemble Methods and Uncertainty
Statistics Prepared for HPAC Users
M.
J. Bell*, J. H. Copeland & G. Bieberbach
*Mission Research
Corporation
ASTER Division, PO Box 466
Fort Collins, Colorado, 80522-0466
Z. Boybeyi
School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax,
Virginia, 22030-4444
5:45 Adjourn
Poster Presentations
P1 - The Thermal
Situation of
Subway Systems as an Important Factor for Airflow
A. Pflitsch*
& H. Kόsel
Ruhr-University of Bochum
Germany
P2 - The Seasonal Variability of the Natural Air Flow
in Subway Systems
A. Pflitsch*
&
H. Kόsel
* Ruhr-University of Bochum
Germany
P3 - Influencing
Factors to the
Climatological Aspects of Subway Systems
A. Pflitsch*
& H. Kόsel
Ruhr-University of Bochum
Germany
P4 - Chemical
Transformation of Pollutants in a Street Canyon Based on High
Resolution
Numerical Simulations
B.
Carissimo* & S. Lacour
Electricitι de
France*
Research and Development Division
Chatou, France
P5 - Overview of Fumigant Emissions Modeling System
D. Sullivan,
D. Hlinka &
M. Holdsworth
P6 - Project Bio-Watch Sensor
Site Selection
G.
Streit, S. Linger & M. D. Williams
P7 - Estimating
Temporal
Fluctuations in Human Populations for CB Exposure Assessments
T. N.
McPherson & M. Brown
Energy and
Infrastructure Analysis Group
Los Alamos
National Laboratory
Drop Point
19S,
SM-30, Bikini Atoll Road
Group D-4, MS F604
Los Alamos, NM 87545
P8 - Sensor Siting Tool
P9 - OMEGA
Soil-and-Vegetation
Model Sensitivity Analysis with FIFE Experiment Data
E.
Novakovskaia & Z. Boybeyi
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
P10 - Dispersion Modeling Using Real-Time Variational
Assimilation of Radar and Lidar Radial Velocities
T. Warner*,
M. Xu, J. Bowers,
S. Swerdlin & C.-L. Lin
*National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
P11 - Development
of a Computational Fluid Dynamics Based Urban Dispersion Simulator:
CFD-Urban
W. J.
Coirier*, D. M.
Fricker, A. J. Reich, M. Furmanczyk & A. J. Przekwas
CFD Research Corporation
P12 - Multistage
Explicit Advective Prediction for Projection-Type Incompressible Flow
Solvers
R. Lohner*
& F. E.
Camelli
*School of Computational Sciences
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, 22030-4444
P13 -
Quantifying Model Fit for Spatially and Temporally Varying Data
P. N.
Price*, C. Reilly & A. Gelman
*Indoor
Environment Department, MS 90-3058
Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley CA 94720
P14 - Findings of the MIDAS-AT V,V & A IPT
R. Babarsky
NGIC
P15 - The Role of
Statistics in Indoor Air Quality Modeling:
Models for the Proximity Effect and Human Exposure
S. McBride
Duke University
Durham, NC
P16 Building Height
Characteristics in Three U.S. Cities
S. J.
Burian*, M.J. Brown, and S.P. Velugubantla
University of Arkansas
Little Rock, AK
7:00
Continental Breakfast
OFCM Special
Session Atmospheric
Transport and Dispersion Modeling Support for Homeland Security
Theme:
Improving and optimizing the
capability of Federal agencies to support homeland security
requirements for
atmospheric modeling of the release from weapons of mass destruction
through a
shared understanding of National operational and research needs.
8:15 Welcoming
Remarks/Set the Stage
Mr.
Samuel P. Williamson, Federal
Coordinator
8:25 Invited
Talk: Radiological Dispersal Device
(RDD)/Improvised Nuclear
8:40 Panel
1: Operational Requirements and the Current State of
the
Science
Will
address the following questions:
- What
are the individual agency requirements for ATD modeling and what
capabilities
have been developed to support those requirements?
- What
shortcomings exist in supporting agency requirements?
- How
do individual agency modeling responsibilities overlap with another
agencys
responsibilities? How are overlapping
responsibilities resolved?
Panelists:
(8-10 minute talks plus
discussion) Total: 90
minutes.
Moderator: CAPT
Frank Garcia, Jr., DOD/ODUSD (S&T)
- Dr.
Paula Davidson, NOAA/NWS
- Ms.
Debbie Payton, NOAA/ORR
- Mr.
Ronald G. Meris, DOD/DTRA
- Dr.
Stephen A. McGuire, NRC
-
Mr.
William Petersen, EPA/NOAA
-
Dr.
Walter Chrobak, DOE
10:10
-10:30 Coffee Break
Introduction: Dr.
Laurie Geller, Senior Program Manager,
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Speakers: General
William Odom, USA (Ret.) (Hudson
Institute)
Dr. John Wyngaard (Penn State University)
10:50 Panel 2: ATD Research Needs and Priorities
Will address the following questions:
- What
are the most pressing research needs?
- What,
if any, are the low-hanging fruit that we can capitalize
on in the short term?
- Do
we sufficiently understand the requirements to prioritize the
research needs?
-
How
do we best coordinate and collaborate on our research efforts?
Panelists: (8-10
minute talks plus discussion) Total: 85 minutes
Moderator: Dr. Walter Bach, USA/ARO
-
Dr.
Jay Boris, Navy/NRL
-
Mr.
Walter W. Schalk, NOAA/ARL
-
Mr.
John Pace, DOD/DTRA
-
Ms.
Jocelyn Mitchell, NRC
-
Dr.
David Bacon, SAIC
-
Dr.
Zafer Boybeyi, GMU
12:15 1:30 Lunch Break
1:30
Panel 3:
Developing a Common Framework for Model Evaluation
Will address the following questions:
-
What model evaluation methods are currently being used?
-
From a science point of view, what is missing in our current
methods? From the user/customer point
of view, what is missing?
-
What steps are required to develop a common approach to model
evaluation?
-
Is developing a common framework an achievable goal?
Panelists: (8-10
minute talks plus discussion) Total: 90
minutes
Moderator: Dr. Paul Try,
OFCM/STC
-
Dr.
Steven Hanna, GMU
-
Dr.
James Ellis, LLNL NARAC
-
Dr.
Jeffrey C. Weil, CIRES/CU
-
Dr.
Priscilla A. Glasow, Mitre Corp, JEM Program's Accreditation Agent
-
Mr.
Bruce Hicks, NOAA/ARL
3:00 Wrap-up--Robert
J. Dumont (OFCM)
3:10 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 Special Session on Default Source
Term Selection (This is the first of
a series of discussions on default source terms
within the OFCM Federal coordinating infrastructure.
Federal agencies only by invitation)
Moderator: Mr.
Bruce Hicks, NOAA/ARL
Adjourn: Approximately 5:30 p.m.